I apologize in advance: I had a lot of difficulty importing the formatting of this piece into Blogger. And I'm too darn tired to fix it. It looks much better at its real home, http://www.xanga.com/furia_fubar
Happy reading!
So what about China?
If we are to believe some folk, China has nastily refused to play ball with the international community so that it can continue willy-nilly, without regard for the rest of the world, on its dirty polluting ways.After all, these are the people who brought you poisoned pet food, and now toothpaste with antifreeze in it.
Now does that sound rational?
The Chinese know a problem when they see it. They’re on this planet with the rest of us.
Remember, this is a nation that penalizes parents for having more than one child. They are home to a 5th of the world’s population – 1.31 billion people.1 From their point of view, they’re the biggest thing going.
And they very politely (or not so politely) blame the western industrialized countries for their predicament.
According to John Doerr, "the Chinese say: "why should we sacrifice our growth, so that the West can continue to be profligate and stupid?"
“China and India, whose emissions are rising rapidly as their economies surge forward, are concerned not to hamper their growth. They also point out that their per capita emissions are much lower than those of rich countries, and they bear less responsibility for the stock of carbon dioxide that has already entered the atmosphere from the fossil fuels burned by rich countries in the course of their industrialization.”2
Oh yeah. They’re saying it.
And to drive it home:
“Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a century after it is emitted, so much of the carbon that is causing climate change now camefrom the developed world."3
Sooooo…
They have said “Thanks, but no thanks” to limiting their GHG emissions “until [China] reached a “medium level of development.” It implied that this meant an annual income of about US $5,000 per person" (38,275.00 yuan) 4, 5
"The first and overriding priorities of developing countries are sustainable development and poverty eradication…China will continue to actively tackle climate change issues in accordance with its national sustainable development strategy in the future."6
After all, more than 23 million of their citizens are living below the poverty level of 638 yuan (that works out to about $83.00 a year.) 7
Poverty in China is rampant, and in stark contrast to...
BOOMTOWN
China is going gangbusters, economically speaking. In fact, they are enjoying “red hot” economic growth at a rate of about 9%. 8
China’s people have higher expectations than can be delivered right now, or even in the near future. They want the Chinese version of the American Dream. Can you blame them?
They have a long way to go. They’re lucky in rural areas if the lights stay on.
Now, there is a relationship between the economic development of a country and increased CO2 emissions. 9 If the lights are going to stay on, and people are going to make more money, and drive cars, and be successful in business, there is going to be a surge in CO2.
Because of its ravening energy needs, “in just 11 years, from 1993-2004 China has gone from generating a surplus of energy to becoming an importer of oil.10
“ Cities nationwide have spun off suburbs as municipal governments sell undeveloped rural land, evict tenant farmers [they can do that, totalitarian government, hello?] and foster construction of suburban housing developments, golf courses and shopping malls”11 Car ownership has increased by 30 per cent since 2002.12
It’s all they can do to keep up with their own development.
According to the Oxford Club’s “Investment U” website story published in January of 2007:
“In the past two years alone, stock funds in China have more than tripled the returns of the S&P 500. Its gross domestic product is growing at roughly 10% annually, compared to 3% or so in the United States. And consumer spending is growing at 13%. And the growth has enticed global businesses to quickly jump on board…
Foreign direct investment totaled $51 billion last year, nearly double what it was in 1999. And it's projected to top $345 billion in the coming year.
The nation has lifted 400 million people out of poverty, a transition some call "the fastest change in human history." China's middle class, now estimated at 150 million to 200 million people, is expected to double in size in the next five years.
Today, Shanghai has 4,000 skyscrapers, twice the number in Manhattan, and plans to build an additional 2,000 in the next five years. And this is just one city in China. A very sustainable 9% to 10% annual GDP growth will make investing in China a lucrative target for years to come.”
FUEL
Because of the abundance of coal in China, the Chinese use coal to generate 67 to 69% of its energy (depending on which source you cite) compared to the world average of 27.8%
This has actually been a drop in usage, according to some sources.13
Robert Collier, in an excellent article in the San Francisco Chronicle (The Good Life Means More Greenhouse Gas, July 6, 20005) says,
“With an estimated 500 years of reserves [of coal] at current production levels, [China] has little economic incentive to use alternative fuels”
Collier continues, “Chinese leaders acknowledge global warming as a serious problem, and they have begun a concerted campaign to cut the country's greenhouse gas output, which is largely driven by energy consumption."
"The government is spending billions of dollars -- nobody knows exactly how much -- to increase energy conservation, shut fume-belching factories and reduce power plant emissions. At the same time, however, the resulting efficiency improvements have been outpaced by unrelenting growth in automobile use, power generation and industrial activity.”
BUT... he continues, “local governments are building scores of illegal coal-fired power plants to try to stave off the blackouts that have plagued cities in recent summers.”
Even so, according to Andrew Leung in his short paper,
"Each Chinese uses only about one tenth of primary energy as an American, a fifth as much as a Japanese though twice as much as an Indian. But in terms of energy per unit of GDP produced, China is extremely inefficient: 7 times more than Japan, 6 times more than the US and 3 times more than India.
WHAT DO THE CHINESE STAND TO LOSE
IN A WARMER WORLD?
They know it’s coming. They want it averted. They don’t want to do so at the cost of their newfound economic boom. They are wll aware of the adverse effects that global warming is bound to bring. Among those:
- and Taiwania flousiana Gaussen (“coffin tree”) are likely to be greatly affected.
Decreasing river runoff problems
Flooding along Coastal plains:“Sea level rise along the Chinese coast in the past 50 years, which resulted incoastal erosion and seawater intrusion, as well as mangrove and coral reef degradation.”14 They expect worse
Northwest China is a dry, delicate environmentwould be seriously harmed by global warming or any sort of climate change. In northeast China, a warmer climate might help agriculture unforeseen strong storms or flooding might bring disaster. 15
“In central and eastern China, winters are cold and summers are hot. The building industry in these regions is using more and more energy. Coastal areas in the south and east are densely populated, and a rise in sea levels could greatly damage the economically dynamic and prosperous Zhujiang and Yangtze deltas."16
Records have shown that “Drought in northern and northeastern China, and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southeastern China have become more severe. The annual precipitation in most years since 1990 has been larger than normal, with the precipitation pattern being a dipole, corresponding to frequent disasters in the North and flood in the South” 17
Earlier arrival of spring
THE CHALLENGES
China expects to reach their goal of about 20% reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP by 2010.It won’t be easy.
Some of the challenges China faces in decreasing its per capita emissions:
• They have a limited mix of resources available, and they have limited means to use them.
• Out-of-date processes and technologies.The sheer size of this problem boggles the mind. Doing away with the old, in which they are already invested, and spending the money necessary to obtain the new is a huge hurdle. Then they need to learn how to use the technologies. The modern infrastructure for production, transformation, transportation and delivery of energy necessary does not exist to the degree that it does in more developed nations.
• It is going to take a looooong time for them to move from a coal-based energy economy to any other form of energy. They have a lot of coal, and little incentive not to use it.
• Public Awareness of Global Warming is very low.
• China’s varied regions boast harsh climatic conditions that include a monsoon or rainy season, extra hot summers and cold winters. That means heating and air conditioning need to be in use.
• Poverty
• Regionalization: If an official shuts down a power plant, he can be fired by the town's mayor. If the power plants are closed and fined, they pay the fine and simply reopen.18
WHAT ARE THE CHINESE DOING ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING?
According to the San Francisco Chronicle article, (bullets mine for easier reading)
“ Leaders pushed [a] new renewable-energy law into fruition in February, an achievement that many foreign analysts call unprecedented for a developing nation. The law requires power-grid operators to buy electricity from producers of wind, solar, geothermal and small- and medium-scale hydro energy, and will offer financial incentives such as a national fund to foster renewable energy development.” Industrialists are fighting hard to disarm the law's regulations.If they succeed, the measure simply won’t work.
- “Increase solar panels to 300 million square metres providing 2 GW of power by 2020, displacing 40 million tonnes of coal annually.”
- “Wind power, much of it in Inner Mongolia, is expected to grow from 1 GW to 30 GW, to power some 1330 million households by 2020.
photo by Orin Wagner, Associated Press (click on photo for original link)
Xinhua file photo - click on photo for related article
- Geothermal Power:As of May, 2006, China ranked first in the world for its use of geothermal power.20
- Making use of biogas: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogas) “Biogas can be used as a vehicle fuel or for generating electricity. It can also be burned directly for cooking, heating, lighting, process heat and absorption refrigeration.” This includes using landfill gas recovery and utilization technologies
- China is planning on going nuclear, big-time. They are embarking upon “the world's largest nuclear energy construction program since the 1970s. As many as 40 new nuclear plants are scheduled over the next 15 years"A nuclear power plant can cost between $1 and $5 million USD to construct. Don’t quote me on those figures. China is a totalitarian government and will likely come in at or under budget or someone may lose their head. In the US, delays and usurious interest rates killed the business in the late 70s. Five reactors are currently under construction
(source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China )
“Preparations have begun for construction of the first phase of the Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant, located at the Donggang Town of Wafangdian City in Liaoning Province, Zhang Guobao, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a news conference in Beijing.
The first phase of the project will consist of two generating units each with an installed capacity of one million kilowatts. The project is scheduled to be completed in 2011 at an estimated cost of 23 billion yuan (2.875 billion U.S. dollars).” 21
•Crackdowns and Enforcement: In December, the State Environmental Protection Agency shut down 32 new coal power plants that had been built [illegally] by local governments. This ties into the challenge of Regionalization described above.These coal power plants violated federal air emissions standards. The move made headlines. (One fifth of the power plants in China are illegal, according to the Wall Street Journal (Source: :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China
The following measures that are to be taken are mentioned in China’s National Climate Change Programme, Prepared under the Auspices of National Development and Reform Commission People’s Republic of China (Printed in June 2007,pp 35-43) :
- Construction of high-speed (ELECTRIFIED) passenger railway lines --the nation's first -- to connect major cities.
• The establishment of the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change (NCCCC)
• Plans for raising public awareness at all educational levels are being put into motion, as well as setting up a bilingual (Chinese and English ) website on climate change (China Climate Change Info-Net http://www.ccchina.gov.cn ) Plans to use coal bed methane (CBM) and coal mine methane (CMM). The target is to raise the proportion of renewable energy (including large-scale hydropower) in primary energy supply up to 10% by 2010.
“Increase forestation andincrease the improved grassland….restore the grassland suffering from degradation, desertification, and salinity…”
photo from World Honda Community
• “Put in place anti-flood systems in large rivers and the high standard for drought relief in farmland by 2010.”[ed. This is a practical step.If climate change is inevitable, dykes, levees and irrigation systems need to be in place for areas that will be affected.]
• Phase out small, “backward” power plants which are not efficient, and to strengthen the power grid construction through adopting advanced power transmission, transformation and distribution technologies. Again a very expensive changeover.
Adopt “green building design technology”
Closer control over industry use of energy - reduce, reuse, recycle -- In steel, cement, and other large industries
They will work at reducing methane emission from rice paddies; increased use of organic fertilizer to promote soil fertility and reduce emission of nitrous oxide from the croplands.
Strictly protect natural forests in logging ban areas to convert natural forest ecosystems from degradation to progressive succession. Conduct wetland conservation
Change people’s traditional way of considering water resource as inexhaustible.
China is also imposing tax shifts which should “discourage the export of energy-intensive products as a means of conserving domestic energy resources. These exports were triggered by recent large investments in energy-intensive industries in China (particularly copper, aluminum and steel) stimulated by elevated international prices” (Wang, Yu. Tariffs to reduce energy consumption China Daily, October 31, 2006)
So to recap, it is not that China is not doing anything to solve or restrain their impact on global warming. They are doing what they can. They use less energy per capita than a lot of the world, especially the developed nations like the USA.
They are frantically trying to supplement their use of coal with many other methods, and they are showing some success. But they are still a poor country, reeling from the effect of living under a totalitarian government that for decades shunned capitalism. Don't get me started on their human rights record, btw, the elephant in the living room.....
They are going to do what they do, regardless of world opinion. They have a strong point in saying that the developed world did the original polluting, and now is trying to shut them out of sharing the great progress and affluence that they desire.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1:China’s National Climate Change Programme Prepared under the Auspices of National Development and Reform Commission People’s Republic of China Printed in June 2007,p. 15.
<http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/ChinaNationalClimateChangeProgramme%20June%2007.pdf>
2 UN to hold climate summit in September By Hugh Williamson in Heiligendamm and Fiona Harvey in Kühlungsborn Published: June 8 2007 12:42 Last updated: June 8 2007 13:07) <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1c81f550-15b5-11dc-a7ce-000b5df10621.html>
3 Ibid.
4China And Climate Change: The Role Of The Energy Sectorby Pan Jiahua June 2005 <http://www.scidev.net/dossiers/index.cfm?fuseaction=policybrief&dossier=4&policy=64 >
5 Universal Currency Converter
<http://www.xe.com/ucc/>
6 CNN Online news on Jun 4 as reported by Reuters News POSTED: 4:32 a.m. EDT, June 4, 2007:
<http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/06/04/china.climate.reut/index.html>
7 China’s National Climate Change Programme,p. 17.
8 San Francisco Chronicle Online The Good Life Means More Greenhouse Gas by Robert Collier, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 6, 2005
< http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/07/06/MNG6UDJJL01.DTL>
9 China’s National Climate Change Programme,p. 19.
10 Pan Jiahua, China And Climate Change: The Role Of The Energy Sector
11 Collier, San Francisco Chronicle Online:The Good Life Means More Greenhouse Gas
12 China Is Second Biggest Greenhouse Gas Emitter by Jia Hepeng, 24 November 2004 Source: SciDev.Net <http://www.scidev.net/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=readnews&itemid=1761&language=1>
13 Sectoral and Geographic Analysis of the Decline in China's National Energy Consumption in the Late 1990s
Lewis, Joanna, David Fridley, Jonathan Sinton and Jieming Lin. Proceedings of the ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry, 2003
14 China’s National Climate Change Programme , p. 19.
15 Pan Jiahua, China And Climate Change: The Role Of The Energy Sector
16 Ibid.
17China’s National Climate Change Programme, p. 19.
18 Jia Hepeng, China Is Second Biggest Greenhouse Gas Emitter
19 Energy Security and Countering Climate Chaos China’s Approach and Global Impact (A short note written for the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 8 August, 2006) Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA, founder of Andrew Leung International Consultants Ltd., and former Director-General of the HK Economic & Trade Office in London.
< http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/china-policy-institute/china/documents/LEUNG_Energy_Security.pdf>
20 China's Utilization of Geothermal Energy Ranks First Worldwide (SinoCast Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)BEIJING, May 03, 2006 (SinoCast via COMTEX) -- http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/05/03/1636164.htm
21 China To Build First Nuclear Power Plant In Northeast RegionPeoples daily Online 20:38, June 08, 2006 China <http://english.people.com.cn/200606/08/eng20060608_272198.html >
Other Sources Used
Beijing's Desert Storm By Ron Gluckman /Beijing, Fengning and Langtougou, China, <http://www.gluckman.com/ChinaDesert.html>
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology Development in China
<http://www.nrel.gov/international/china/project_gansu.html>
(Wang, Yu. Tariffs to reduce energy consumption China Daily, October 31, 2006)
<http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-10/31/content_720485.htm>